Early access · Spring 2026

Scenario Planning
that stays alive.

Light on the futures you’re betting on.

Lumorio turns scenario planning from a one-off workshop into continuous practice. AI agents watch your signposts, flag what moves, and surface the questions your strategy team needs to answer next.

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01 — The problem

Scenario planning produces real insight.
But the half-life is about three months.

  1. 01 — Organizations invest six-figure sums in scenario planning — executive time, multi-day offsites, facilitation, and report production.
  2. 02 — The output is a polished document. It becomes shelfware within three months — not because the thinking was bad, but because nothing keeps it alive.
  3. 03 — With no sensing infrastructure. No engagement rhythm. No connection to real decisions. The thinking decays.
  4. 04 — The next surprise arrives. The cycle repeats. Organizations pay repeatedly for a capability that should be cumulative.

“We spent weeks on scenarios last year. I couldn’t tell you right now which one we’re tracking toward.”

02 — The cycle

A familiar trap

The ROI scenario planning looks poor not because the method is flawed — but because there is no infrastructure to sustain it.

01
Surprise
An unexpected shift disrupts strategy. Leadership demands better foresight.
02
Commission
A consultant engagement is commissioned. Six figures. Three months.
03
Insight
Scenarios are produced. The offsite goes well. The team feels prepared.
04
Evaporation
The consultant leaves. The document ages. No one tracks the signposts.

… and the cycle repeats

3mo
Average half-life of scenario insights before they become operationally irrelevant
€250k+
Typical total cost of a full scenario planning engagement — paid again next cycle
0%
Of organisations have continuous signpost monitoring in place after the offsite
03 — The solution

Scenarios as living infrastructure,
not dead documents.

Lumorio is a living scenario planning system. It keeps the scenario framework as the organising spine and builds everything around maintaining its relevance. Three integrated capabilities that work together.

Build scenarios

Guided builder for teams new to foresight. Freeform import for experienced practitioners. Define uncertainties, scenarios, and the signposts that connect them to reality.

Sense continuously

AI agents scan the external environment against your signposts. Signals are classified, scored for relevance, and mapped to your specific scenarios — not a firehose, a focused lens.

Think together

Monthly health checks and quarterly structured sessions — pre-populated by the platform. The product creates the cadence. The team owns the thinking.

The principle

Automate the sensing. Not the sensemaking.

04 — How it works

Four layers. One living system.

Layer 01 — Foundation

Scenario backbone

Build or import your scenario framework. Define your key uncertainties, map the scenarios they produce, and establish the signposts that will tell you which world you’re moving toward.

Guided builder for new teams, freeform for practitioners
Layer 02 — Intelligence

Continuous sensing

AI agents scan the external environment against your signposts. Signals are classified, scored for relevance, and mapped to scenarios. Built on a proven AI-powered horizon scanning engine — not theoretical.

Proven technology. Operational today.
Layer 03 — Synthesis

Provocation engine

The system synthesises signals into strategic questions. It flags blind spots — signals that don’t fit any of your scenarios. Designed for productive discomfort, not information overload.

Questions your assumptions. Surfaces what you’re missing.
Layer 04 — Decision

Strategy stress-testing

Take any portfolio decision, initiative, or asset and test it across every scenario at once. See which bets hold up, which ones break, and which ones need a different posture in each future — before you commit the capital.

From scenarios to decisions you can defend.
05 — Positioning

Adjacent to everything.
Different from all of it.

You may already use tools that touch parts of this problem.
Here is how Lumorio is different.

vs.

Horizon scanning tools

Good at watching the world. Weak at connecting signals to your specific strategy.
Lumorio gives scanning a strategic brain — signals connect to your signposts and determine how scenarios move. They are scored and synthesised into questions your team can act on.
vs.

Strategy execution platforms

Track what you said you’d do. Don’t ask whether your assumptions still hold.
Lumorio looks forward, not backward. It doesn’t track your OKRs — it questions whether the ground your OKRs stand on is still solid.
vs.

Foresight consultancies

Produce excellent scenarios. Walk away after the offsite.
Lumorio gives the work an afterlife. Consultants can give clients a living deliverable instead of a PDF — and retain a relationship beyond the engagement.
vs.

Risk management tools

Track known risks within a stable assumption set.
Lumorio questions whether your assumptions are still valid — monitoring for signals that your understanding of the world needs to change entirely.
06 — Foundation

Built on fifty years
of proven methodology.

Lumorio doesn’t invent a new approach to foresight. It solves the delivery problem that has plagued a proven one.

▩

Proven sensing engine

The AI-powered horizon scanning layer is built and operational. This isn’t a concept — the core technology works. Lumorio applies it to the scenario planning problem.

◎

Methodological lineage

Scenario planning has a 50-year track record — Shell, Peter Schwartz, the IPCC. Lumorio builds on this foundation, not away from it. The method is sound. The delivery was broken.

◈

Designed with practitioners

Built with foresight professionals, strategy teams, and consultants. The workflows and terminology reflect how serious practitioners actually work.

◇

Early access stage

We are building Lumorio with a small cohort of design partners. If you’re serious about keeping foresight alive in your organisation, we want to hear from you before we open broadly.

Get started

Shed light on the
shift before it hits.

Join early access and keep your scenarios alive.
Plans starting from €x/month.

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Running a foresight practice or enterprise strategy team? Talk to us directly →